Election Averages and Forecasts

This will be my first and last election post, I just can’t deal with the dread of everything coming, but on those ”election forecasts”: isn’t 2024 the final nail in the coffin for them?

No way this election was ”too close to call”, or ”50/50 but my gut says”. If you could start 10000 parallel universes from Tuesday morning, Trump would have won pretty much in all of those? And that models can’t predict correctly in this kind of an election makes those models more than useless in all cases, no? Maybe polls are something you can’t sum and average over at all?

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